Short answer: a pity system is a counter that makes each failed pull improve your next one. In Genshin Impact's character banner, the base chance of a 5-star is 0.6 percent per pull, the chance rises sharply from around pull 74, and pull 90 is guaranteed. That memory is what separates gacha from a roulette wheel or a slot, where every spin is independent and nothing is ever "due". Below, we run the actual numbers: what 0.6 percent means without pity, what pity changes, what the 50/50 costs you, and how it all compares to the casino maths gacha is so often measured against.
What 0.6 Percent Really Means
Start with the raw rate and pretend pity doesn't exist. If each pull has a 0.6 percent chance, the chance of getting nothing in 90 pulls is 0.994 to the power of 90, which is about 58 percent. So without a safety net, almost six in ten players would finish 90 pulls with no 5-star at all.
The rest of the maths is just as harsh. With a flat 0.6 percent rate, the average wait would be about 167 pulls, and half of all players would still be waiting after 115. A few unlucky ones would go 400 or 500 pulls without a hit. That spread is what drives players away, and it's the main reason pity systems exist.
| Scenario | Chance of at least one 5-star | Average pulls per 5-star |
|---|---|---|
| Flat 0.6%, no pity, 90 pulls | about 42% | about 167 |
| Flat 0.6%, no pity, 73 pulls | about 36% | about 167 |
| Genshin rules with pity, 90 pulls | 100% | about 62.5 (1.6% consolidated rate) |
| Genshin 4-star rule, 10 pulls | 100% | under 10 (13% consolidated rate) |
The consolidated rate is the figure HoYoverse publishes alongside the base rate. It already includes pity: 1.6 percent for a 5-star, which works out to one 5-star every 62.5 pulls on average. That's the number to plan with, not 0.6.
Soft Pity, Hard Pity and Sparking
Not every game uses the same safety net, but most use one of three:
"Hard pity guarantees that a high-rarity or featured item will automatically drop once a fixed maximum number of pulls is reached." – Wikipedia, Gacha game
- Soft pity raises the rate after a threshold. In Genshin, the community's large pull-tracking datasets show the rate climbing steeply from pull 74. The exact curve isn't published, so treat any figure for pull 80 as a community estimate.
- Hard pity is the ceiling. In Genshin and Honkai: Star Rail's character banners it sits at 90 pulls.
- Sparking gives you a currency per pull and lets you swap a fixed amount for the featured unit. Granblue Fantasy made this famous.
Hard pity and sparking change how you should think about spending. They turn a random purchase into one with a known worst-case price. The game is still random from pull to pull, but the total cost has a ceiling.
The 50/50 and the True Worst Case
Here's the catch that new players miss. Hitting a 5-star on a limited banner doesn't mean you get the featured character. In Genshin, the first 5-star has a 50/50 chance of being the featured one. Lose it and you get a standard character, but your next 5-star is guaranteed to be the featured one.
So the real worst case for a specific limited character is 180 pulls: lose the 50/50 at pull 90, then hit the guarantee at pull 180. At 160 Primogems per pull, that's 28,800 Primogems. The average case is far kinder, but if you're saving for a character you can't miss, 180 is the number that matters. Before you plan around it, check the hardware too; our list of budget gaming phones that run popular gachas in 2026 covers what keeps those long sessions smooth.
Pity Has Memory, Roulette Doesn't
Gamers often say "I'm due" on a banner, and with pity, they're actually right. Each failed pull really does move you closer to a guarantee. That's the one place where the classic gambler's mistake stops being a mistake:
"The gambler's fallacy does not apply when the probability of different events is not independent" – Wikipedia, Gambler's fallacy
A roulette wheel is the opposite. A single number on a European wheel has a 1 in 37 chance every spin, and 37 spins without your number is no reason for it to show up next. In fact, the chance of missing a single number across 37 spins in a row is about 36 percent. Nothing builds up, nothing resets. If you want to see how fully that independence runs through the game, this Norwegian guide to why each roulette spin ignores the one before it covers the wheel layouts, payouts and why betting systems like Martingale don't change the house edge.
That's the most useful habit to take from gacha into any other game of chance: before you think "it's due", check whether the system has a counter. Gacha banners usually do. Wheels, dice and slot machines don't.
Rare Drops vs Jackpots: Same Maths, Different Packaging
A limited 5-star and a progressive jackpot both sell the same feeling: a small chance at something big. The difference is that the jackpot can be valued in money. The expected value of a jackpot per spin is the size of the pot multiplied by the chance of winning it. A 1,000,000 kroner pot with a 1 in 10,000,000 chance adds 0.10 kroner to each spin. A clear breakdown of how progressive jackpot odds and pot contributions work shows the other side of that trade too: the part of each bet that feeds the pot is taken out of the game's regular wins.
Gacha has a similar trade-off, just hidden. Banners with featured characters pull your currency toward one unit, and everything you get along the way, the standard 5-stars and the pile of 4-stars, is the "base game" paying you back in items instead of money.
Why Gacha Has No RTP
Casino games publish a return-to-player figure because their prizes are money. A game with 96 percent RTP pays back 96 of every 100 units wagered over a very long run, which leaves a 4 percent house edge. If you want to see how that figure is calculated and where to find it inside a game, there's a guide to RTP explained with worked examples that goes from roulette and blackjack to slots with several RTP versions.
Gacha can't do this. A character has no price, so a banner can't publish "you get back X percent". What you get instead is the drop rate, the consolidated rate and the pity rules. Those three numbers are your RTP equivalent, and together they tell you the average and the worst-case cost in pulls.
Gacha vs Casino Mechanics at a Glance
| Feature | Gacha banner | Roulette or slot |
|---|---|---|
| Is each attempt independent? | No, pity counters carry over | Yes, every spin stands alone |
| Published odds | Base and consolidated rates | RTP and paytable |
| Guaranteed outcome | Yes, at hard pity | Never |
| Prize has a money value | No, account-bound | Yes |
| Worst-case cost known in advance | Yes, with hard pity and the 50/50 guarantee | No ceiling |
How to Plan Your Pulls
- Track your pity. Your counter carries over between banners of the same type. Know where it is before a new banner drops.
- Know if you're on the guarantee. If you lost the last 50/50, your next 5-star is the featured one. That cuts your worst case in half.
- Plan for the worst case, hope for the average. Save for 180 pulls if a character matters to you; expect to need fewer.
- Use the consolidated rate, not the base rate. 1.6 percent is the useful number. 0.6 percent only tells you what happens before soft pity.
- Convert currency into money once. Work out what one pull costs in your currency, then multiply by 90 and 180.
- Skip banners on purpose. Saving through a banner you don't care about is the cheapest way to secure the one you do.
Where Gacha Is Heading
Gacha rules have been shaped by regulators from the start. Japan's Consumer Affairs Agency made "complete gacha" illegal in 2012, and China requires publishers to disclose item probabilities. Pity systems are partly a response to that pressure and partly a retention tool. Some studios are now going further and dropping character gacha entirely, as with Nodusfall's developers confirming no character gacha. Meanwhile, banners keep earning more on PC, as we covered in how gacha games are powering a quiet PC gaming boom. Either way, the maths stays the same: read the rates, know your counter, and plan with the worst case.
FAQ
What is soft pity in gacha games?
Soft pity is the point where the drop rate for a top-rarity item starts climbing after a run of failed pulls. In Genshin Impact, player data puts it at around pull 74 on the character banner. The exact curve isn't officially published.
What is the consolidated rate?
It's the average drop rate once pity is included. For Genshin's 5-star characters it's 1.6 percent, which means one 5-star every 62.5 pulls on average, against a 0.6 percent base rate.
How many pulls do I need to guarantee a limited character?
In Genshin Impact, up to 180 if you have no guarantee carried over: 90 to hit a 5-star, and another 90 if you lose the 50/50. If you're already on the guarantee, 90 is the maximum.
Does pity carry over to the next banner?
In Genshin and Honkai: Star Rail, pity and the 50/50 guarantee carry over between banners of the same type. Check each game's rules, as they vary.
Is a slot machine "due" after a long losing streak?
No. Slots and roulette use independent outcomes, so past results have no effect on the next spin. Pity systems are the exception because they are designed with a memory.